Timo Meier could be an intriguing ‘replacement’ for Pavel Buchnevich
After 30 games, it’s very clear that the New York Rangers are missing Pavel Buchnevich, currently third in the NHL in goals over substitution behind only Nazem Kadri and Mikko Rantanen, especially at 5v5. If the front office is to fill the hole he left this season, Timo Meier could be an attractive option to pursue.
While the team have found a way to win games and score points in the standings, they need some 5v5 help that Meier may well be able to provide. The Rangers are currently ranked 18th in the league with a GF% of 48.93 and 22nd with an xGF% of 48.19 according to Evolving-Hockey. Those numbers may improve if they get more of their top players in tournaments, but instead of betting on that, the front office should be looking for players who can help give them a boost.
Why might Meier be available? Some of the details associated with his contract make it interesting. the San JosÃ© sharks are sixth in the Pacific Division with a 15-14-1 record and 31 points in 30 games. The list goes on and on, and they are at a crossroads in terms of deciding how they want to proceed with the list.
Tomas Hertl is 28 years old and a UFA in the making. Evander Kane and his cap of $ 5.875 million reached with three years to play after this season remains in limbo in the AHL. Erik Karlsson is having a new season, but he’s 31 and will be making $ 11.5 million a year until 2026-2027. Logan Couture, 32, will also be paid $ 8 million per year until 2026-2027. There’s also Brent Burns, 36, who owed $ 8 million a season for three more years and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, 34, who raised $ 7 million for four more years after that. All of this to say that the team has a lot of money at stake in the older players going forward, and as it stands, they don’t have an easy path to discord that looks viable for the foreseeable future. .
There are no quick fixes, but Assistant General Manager Joe Will has options. Doug Wilson, the Sharks general manager, is currently on sick leave from the team, although I imagine he would have a say in any big move. Ultimately the Sharks won’t be able to move some of those big contracts easily, but I think things could start their pivot with Hertl, if he chooses not to sign again, then move on to Meier for attempting to get younger to add talent to eventually play with William Eklund and the other top kids in the system. There is always a chance that Hertl will want to stay and try to make things work, but even if that happens, I just don’t see them signing Meier’s qualifying offer when the time comes. I could be wrong here.
Meier is an interesting case as he costs $ 6 million against the cap this year and next, but he has a qualifying offer of $ 10 million when his RFA contract expires. Meier was one of the last players to take advantage of a quirk that has since been changed in ABC. If Meier had signed his deal under the new rules, his OQ would only be $ 7.2 million. That $ 10 million on paper seems to be prohibitively expensive for the Rangers, but that doesn’t exactly mean he’ll get $ 10 million on his next contract. In theory, if the Rangers traded for Meier, they would have him under contract for the remainder of the regular season, the playoffs, and the entire 2022-2023 period.
They would have time to discuss with him the long-term extension framework which could be signed in January 2023 and which costs less than $ 10 million per year. The Rangers have the advantage of getting creative with some initial signing bonuses that give Meier flexibility and could prompt him to strike a deal before he gets to the point of making a qualifying bid. But even if that didn’t happen, given the Rangers’ current position in the table and the production they get from their current players, there’s an argument to be made that it’s worth taking a risk. with someone like Meier, even though he ends up being a landlord.
There is a risk there because of what it will likely cost to acquire it. Corn this is something the Rangers might find out once they start discussing trade talks with the Sharks, and then decide if they want to continue with Meier as a glorified rental, or someone they think they can. sign. Both options have their benefits, but financially the team could make it work.
Kaapo Kakko is unlikely to get a big deal on his ELC, Julien Gauthier won’t get a big raise, and the only other players who need to be replaced would be Greg McKegg, Kevin Rooney and Alexandar Georgiev. If the Rangers bought Meier, he could essentially take money that could otherwise be spent on Ryan Strome, so if it was a one-for-one trade from a salary standpoint for the 2022-2023 season, the team would have to find $ 1.5million to tie things up, which could be done by not wearing a seventh D like Jarred Tinordi ($ 900,000) and potentially pulling out a bad contract. There is also the fact that the cap is is expected to increase by $ 1 million next year, but that could change due to new traffic limits in some Canadian cities due to an increase in COVID-19 cases.
With all this out of the way, why Meier?
For starters, he’s 25 and has played 342 games to date. He’s been in the league for as long as Buchnevich, and during that time he’s scored 42.4 goals over substitution. Buchnevich scored 46.4 goals over substitution. Here’s how they stack up against each individual category that goes into their total GAR.
And here’s a look at each player’s career progression.
The biggest difference is that Buchnevich has been more of a driver than Meier, but that said, 159 of Meier’s 217 career points came in at 5v5, which equates to a 73.2% 5v5 point percentage.
This season, Meier is 11th in the NHL in GAR with 8.9. Evenly matched, he has 22 points (7 goals and 15 assists), and 14 of his 22 evenly matched points are primary. It also has a good GF% of 69.12, a CF% of 50.3 and an xGF% of 59.52.
He’s rebounded well after a declining 2020-21 season that saw him finish with a 12-19-31 line in 54 games while shooting 7.7% Meier took just 155 shots last season, and this year he has reached 111 shots in 25 games. Weighing his ice time, he’s attempted 20.6 60-shot attempts this year, up from 19.99 last season. This translated into a G / 60 of 1.10, down from 0.84 last season, and an ixG / 60 of 1.24, up from 0.87 last season. In fact, so far it’s been a career year for Meier in terms of individual goals expected by 60. Here’s a quick look at his online career to date.
- 2021-22: 1.10 G / 60 | 1.24 xG / 60 | 20.60 iCF / 60
- 2020-21: 0.84 G / 60 | 0.87 xG / 60 | 19.99 iCF / 60
- 2019-20: 1.06 G / 60 | 1.01 xG / 60 | 17.21 iCF / 60
- 2018-19: 1.21 G / 60 | 1.17 xG / 60 | 20.34 iCF / 60
- 2017-18: 0.86 G / 60 | 0.93 xG / 60 | 17.39 iCF / 60
- 2016-17: 0.45 G / 60 | 1.12 xG / 60 | 22.67 iCF / 60
Here’s a look at his RAPM chart, and find out more about it you can read this explanation.
Meier will be 26 in October 2022 and turn 27 just before the start of the 2023-24 season, which means he would be 28 if he had to chain things to strike to hit unrestricted free agency in July 2024 afterwards. having accepted a deal after his current contract expires. The Rangers have a clear need for a right wing and the assets to make a deal. The Sharks are at a crossroads and could choose to sell high on Meier now, as waiting until next year may not give a better return. The teams could capitalize on the possibility that the Sharks do not qualify, and they could instead try to sign Meier as UFA.
In terms of cost it would undoubtedly be high, but it would be for a very good young player with another year on his contract. The Rangers have a surplus of defensive prospects and plan to be a non-picking team at the start of the draft for the next two years. They also have interesting future prospects. The Sharks’ prospect pool is pretty solid, and the Rangers could add to that.
The Sharks have done a good job of adding solid depth in the last few drafts and not wasting picks on players who have very little chance. Adding some big potential parts in 2022 and 2023 and this system will be ready to go!
– Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) July 30, 2021
The point with Meier is that it is a proven product that would be an addition that can help now and in the years to come. I wrote previously that Claude Giroux would make a decent rental if available, but Meier might just as well be fine, although it will be more expensive.
Whether it’s a rental or a long-term addition, Meier would be a great fit and could help give the team something more they need to compete with other contenders around playoff time. playoffs. The best teams fill up with talented players, and Meier is a very talented player who still has the edge.
Statistics via Evolution-Hockey unless otherwise stated.