the Caufield ceiling; the year of the recruits of Zegras; Bennett next season; Montreal Advances – June 25 – DobberHockey
Montreal and Vegas played a game that looked like most games in this series – tight checking, low scoring, and knife edge errors. The Habs managed to maintain a 2-1 lead for much of the night, but a third period goal sent them into overtime. Alec Martinez was able to pinch down and snap a rebound early in the last quarter and that 2-2 score got us into the OT.
Small Goals Boy aka Goal Caufield aka Cole Caufield did it again, this time with a solo effort that will be highlighted:
Just an absolutely dynamite goal. It’s hard to imagine this team being where they are without him.
Again in this series, extra time didn’t last long as 99 seconds after the first OT, Artturi Lehkonen went on Robin Lehner, sealing the victory. It was an excellent pass from Phillip Danault, and a nice finish from Lehkonen. It was a good time for that line to enter the table for its first goal against Vegas in six games.
As a Habs fan, you’ll forgive me if I’m brief. I have a beer that I need to drink.
I will have more details on the losing team of this series in my Ramblings next week.
Yesterday’s Ramblings briefly covered Cole Caufield. The goal was to get people to think about his real advantage in the NHL in general, and with the Habs in particular. I want to talk about this for a minute.
Let’s put that aside: I think Caufield is a future all-star, and maybe as early as 2021-2022. But as I have talked about in recent weeks, training is important, as is the role of a player. Let’s talk for a moment about Montreal coaching.
At this point, I have to assume that Dominique Ducharme will be the coach next year. It’s hard to imagine a caretaker coach leading a team to (at least) one Cup Final game (Thursday afternoon) and getting canned. So what was ice time like under Ducharme?
Claude Julien was fired on February 24e. That gives us around six weeks under Julien and around 10 weeks under Ducharme in the regular season. Under Julien, the only striker to play more than 18 minutes a night was Nick Suzuki, and Tyler Toffoli was the only additional striker to play more than 17 minutes. Under Ducharme, once again, Suzuki was the only striker over 18 minutes with Toffoli over 17 minutes. Danault and Anderson also cracked 17 minutes, but barely. In other words, the distribution of ice time hasn’t changed much under either coach.
That’s what worries me here. Since entering the roster in Game 3 against Toronto, Caufield has averaged 15:22 ice time per night. The playoffs aren’t the regular season, but knowing what we know about Ducharme in the regular season, will Caufield jump three minutes per game in YOU in four months? Doubtful.
When it comes to Caufield, I truly believe the sky is the limit. If everything falls into place, he is an eternal star marker. But there is a difference in playing 21 minutes per night on the wing of Connor McDavid or Brayden Point, and playing 16 minutes per night on the wing of Nick Suzuki or Jesperi Kotkaniemi. It will be interesting to see what the ADP is on him in September, as he might be higher than what I’m willing to put up with.
Yesterday in my Ramblings I started a little series where I discuss an issue that I have – from a fantastic point of view – about every team in the league. I try to do this before the draft and free agency, so that we can adjust what we need afterwards. Let’s come to our four teams today: Anaheim, Florida, Edmonton and Dallas.
Can Trevor Zegras instantly be a 1C?
The point is, he might not even be asked to be a 1C right away. The team still have Adam Henrique around and Sam Steel will likely be a mid-6 center for them as well. We could see Zegras come in 2021-2022 as a pseudo-2C, where he and Steel take turns in 2C depending on the game and the situation.
Zegras has actually had a good year. Here are his impacts from HockeyViz, which show a neutral impact in attack and a large impact defensively:
This may come as a surprise to some, given that Zegras’ puck skills are what came to the fore with him as a draft pick. Still, if he’s showing above average defense as a rookie in a bad situation, * and * he’s got all of those puck skills, what will he look like in 2-3 years? I bet something special.
But in 2-3 years, it’s not 2021-2022, and the team still has a long way to go in their rebuilding. The pieces are starting to come together, but the Megazord is far from over. I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking a late flight on Zegras, but I think they are seriously limited in what they can do with this list.
Are the performances of Sam Bennett’s small samples reproducible?
This is perhaps one of the biggest questions for the fantasy hockey community during the offseason. If we think Bennett can almost repeat what he did in the home stretch in Florida, then we’re looking for a player with a point per game who can throw three shots a night and over 100 hits in a season. In multi-cat leagues, it’s close to a first-round pick. That’s why it’s really, really important to understand how awesome it can be.
What was sustainable and what was not? First of all, the shooting percentage.
Okay, Bennett shot 15.4 percent, and that’s way more than his career average at this point (around 10 percent). So if we cut his goal rate by a third, he goes from six goals in 10 games to four goals, which is over 30 goals in a full season. It’s always so good!
Bennett also jumped to almost 21 shot attempts every 60 minutes. It’s high for him, but he has a 16-plus season a few years ago. And we have to remember that Florida has been one of the strongest offensives in the league this year: before Bennett even got there, the team were second in shooting rates and 10e in goal rate. He also jumped straight to a line with Jonathan Huberdeau, one of the league’s top attacking ends. He might not go back to 21/60 shot attempts next year, but I think it’s possible to reach high adolescence, which means his shot rate shouldn’t drop by one. cliff, even if it decreases.
We would think the team had unbearable shot rates with him on the ice, and it was a little high at 10.75% 5v5. But he played with Huberdeau, who, again, is a great playmaker. Even if it goes down to 9-10 percent, they should still score at a very high rate.
I am optimistic here. I’m usually on board with some endangered guys producing out of nowhere, but all the pieces fell into place for Bennett here. I may be a buyer in September.
Can Jesse Puljüjarvi score points?
This is a question that I will briefly raise now, but I will come back to it later this offseason. Obviously, any player who skates with McDavid 5-5 and often PP has a high cap. But despite all those minutes, Pulju’s production this year stood at 22 goals and 37 points in 82 games. Not exactly great considering its frequent linemate.
That’s a good question to ask because there are players who are good at forward chess, reaching the net and shooting, who are not top players. Brady Tkachuk, Brendan Gallagher and Max Pacioretty are all guys who bring a similar fantastic profile to Pulju – with the exception of McDavid as a line partner – and none of them have ever had a 70-point season. (again). Again, I’ll dig deeper into this in another Ramblings, but the type of fantasy league can mean a lot to Pulju’s worth.
Who will be the Dallas PP1QB?
It looks like John Klingberg should have the indoor track like he has for years, but Miro Heiskanen gained a few top-level minutes with Klingberg on the roster, especially as the season progressed a bit. Now the team has split their PP units at times, which can be a bit confusing, but Klingberg should always be the guy here.
I guess the best question is: who needs the role for the fantastic value? Heiskanen played almost 40 points in his first three seasons without much peak time. Heiskanen can be a 40 point guy without the PP time. I’m not sure Klingberg has the same skills to be a 40 point guy without the same PP time.
The bet is still Klingberg here, but it could be a topic of conversation until the first puck pitch.