The economic reality is more complicated. Yet with Republicans only needing to win a handful of seats to regain the House and Senate, the party increasingly sees the prospect of higher and sustained prices as a way to link policies passed in Washington with the experiences of voters whose portfolios may feel the strain.

Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind., Said his constituents had “seen the higher prices for gasoline in particular, but also groceries and the cost of running their business.” Such voters, he said, “know, intuitively, that this is due to the Democrats’ economic agenda and big spending plans.”

Consumer prices rose 5% over the previous 12 months, the largest year-over-year increase since 2008. Excluding more volatile items such as food and energy, prices increased 3.8% in the past year – the biggest 12-month jump since 1992.

These jumps were motivated by comparisons to the 2020 economy hampered by the pandemic, but nonetheless show prices are rising sharply, with the cost of used cars rising 7.3% in May and food costs rising nearly half a percentage point over the same period. Gas prices fell from a national average of $ 2.48 to $ 3.13 per gallon under Biden, the first time since 2014 that it has crossed the $ 3 threshold.

Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm said this year’s inflation rates are expected to remain much higher than usual, but this is mainly due to the pandemic which has pushed inflation to a level unusually low last year. There is also a boom in consumer spending due to pent-up demand as the virus recedes and the lingering effects of global supply chain disruptions, she said.

One example cited by Sahm is a semiconductor shortage triggered by a virus that has slowed the production of new cars and contributed to soaring used vehicle prices, at least temporarily.

“It’s not a structural change in the economy, it’s a few months,” Sahm said.

Others downplay the risk of price increases continuing, as many of them have been caused by supply bottlenecks that are expected to ease as the post-pandemic economic recovery takes hold. .

“We are still skeptical that this signals the start of a sustained recovery in inflation, whether in the United States or elsewhere,” said Ben May, director of global macro research for Oxford Economics.

Factories that ramp up production are already easing some price pressures. Lumber prices, which have skyrocketed recently, are falling again. It could potentially affect everything from building homes in white-hot real estate markets across the country to the cost of an office in Office Depot.

Republicans, however, have escalated warnings that inflation is rising and they blame the $ 1.9 billion stimulus package Congressional Democrats have pushed through Congress. Accusations that lavish federal spending is overheating the economy are growing on the right as lawmakers develop a vast array of infrastructure.

Inflation nervousness could end up resonating more with voters than many of the cultural issues Republicans raised in Biden’s first months in office. The president’s approval ratings have remained high despite complaints from many Republicans about the “culture cancellation.”

Florida Senator Rick Scott, who is leading the GOP’s efforts to retake the Senate, rebuked Biden for “realizing that reckless spending has consequences, inflation is real and the US debt crisis is getting worse.”

Banks, the congressman from Indiana who is chairman of the Republican study committee, is proposing long-term changes to House rules to hold committees to account on how the proposed legislation will affect inflation. “We need to tie inflation to Biden’s economic agenda and explain to voters how inflation is Democrats’ hidden tax on the middle class,” Banks wrote in a recent note to study group members.

“It’s here, it’s real,” Louisiana Representative Steve Scalise, the second Republican House leader, said of inflation. “And it’s getting worse and worse.”

White House officials see what is happening as a global phenomenon rather than US-centric, as the ports of Hamburg, Germany and several Chinese cities face similar challenges. This suggests that the size of the federal coronavirus relief stimulus package mattered less to inflation than the complexity of restarting a global economy shocked by a pandemic. Higher shipping costs alone could increase the price of a typical pair of jeans by 29 cents, or increase the cost of a refrigerator by $ 50, according to Oxford Economics’ analysis.

The Biden administration has created a task force to deal with supply chains to show that they are targeting certain forces behind inflation. However, part of the perceived inflationary pressure is rising wages, and the White House views higher incomes as a positive. He also sees some inflation as a byproduct of vaccinations increasing the demand for workers, goods and services.

“We will keep an eye on it, but we think it should be resolved in the next few months,” Sameera Fazili, deputy director of the White House’s National Economic Council, recently told reporters.

The economy grew from January through March at a blistering 6.4% annual rate, which could fuel even higher wages and possibly higher prices. The alternative, however, is that the price hike is just a jolt and dissipates quickly.

It has never been a success to bet that inflation will influence a large part of the electorate.

The GOP’s concerns about inflation abounded, but rose to narrow after the 2008 financial crisis. Republicans made dramatic gains in the House during the mid-terms of 2010, but this election has become concentrated more on federal spending and health care than on inflation.

Sahm said voters were particularly sensitive to rising gasoline prices, but that in general “there are other things that consumers care a lot more about.”

Rising concerns about inflation, meanwhile, may also simply come with one party’s territory when the other is in power.

Under President George W. Bush in August 2008, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., Issued a statement noting that inflation has peaked in 17 years and “threatens to devour paychecks. Americans who work hard “. Now Congressional Democrats are calling for more spending to keep the post-pandemic economy strong.

John Horn, a practice professor of economics at Washington University in St. Louis, said inflation sometimes helped influence midterm elections, especially when Democrats won congressional victories in 1982 and during the tea-fueled Republican wave of 2010. But he hasn’t played a decisive role in politics since the energy crisis of the late 1970s, triggering the gas lines.

“We haven’t dealt with this for 40 years,” Horn said. “Most of the people in that 35 to 65 age bracket – which is the working class and ask, ‘What’s my salary and can I afford stuff?’ – don’t remember the inflation.

___

Associated Press writer Brian Slodysko contributed to this report.