NHL Betting Guide: Saturday 5/8/21
It’s the last full Saturday of the regular season.
The Central and Northern Divisions are the last remaining divisions to see their four playoff teams solidified, meaning the playoff games are largely to be determined.
It should be an entertaining hockey day as the teams battle for critical points to move up the standings.
Here are some plays from today’s screenings!
Vegas Golden Knights vs. St. Louis Blues
Golden Knights moneyline (-198): 3 out of 5 stars
The Vegas Golden Knights remain one of the best teams in the NHL, which was no different from their recent roster. The Golden Knights rank fourth in the league in terms of expected goal percentage thanks to dominant play on both ends of the ice.
Across all strengths, the Knights have posted an expected goal percentage of over 50.0% in seven of their last nine contests. Vegas has dominated and outscored opponents in high danger odds in all but two of those contests, edging their opponents by a cumulative 33-23 margin over the seven-game sample.
The St. Louis Blues are firmly established on the opposite end of the spectrum of advanced metrics. The Blues occupy the 26th place in the league with a goal percentage of 45.8%. Their recent sample is equally disastrous.
Saint-Louis has been outscored in 10 of its last 12 games, trying over nine high danger chances in just three of those games. Possession metrics are a bit better, as the Blues have a Corsi odds over 50.0% in six of those games, but that hasn’t resulted in more shots as the Blues have only beaten three teams. in the last 12 games.
This game is probably a preview of the first round game that awaits these teams. Vegas has led the series this season, posting a goal percentage of over 50.0% in all seven games. We don’t expect anything different tonight as the Golden Knights move closer to the West Division banner.
The Golden Knights moneyline is a three-star play, according to our projections.
Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Capitals moneyline (-180): ranking 3 out of 5 stars
Capitals -1.5 (+134): 1 in 5 stars
Over 6.5 (-110): 2 out of 5 stars
Goalkeepers can be a problem for Washington capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers for the second night in a row. Both teams chose to start their main goalies last night, leaving Craig Anderson and Alex Lyon tend to crease tonight.
Lyon haven’t been impressive in limited action this season. In five games (four starts), Lyon have an average of 3.69 goals against and only 87.6% of shots. Lyon have allowed at least four goals while stopping 87.5% or fewer shots in three of those four starts and have an 82.7% save percentage in three appearances on the road.
This will make it easier for the Capitals, who are seeing an increase in production metrics. Washington has eclipsed the double-digit high danger odds in six of its last seven games, averaging 14.7 such chances per game over that span. Scoring chances and shots are also plentiful, with the Caps averaging 29.0 and 32.7 chances per game, respectively, on the same sample.
The Flyers’ defense has been a bit suspect in its last seven games. Opponents have attempted at least 11 high danger chances and at least 30 shots in four of seven. It could make tonight’s game feel more like target practice, as the Caps focus on hope to win the crown of the East Division.
By reconciling our projections with the betting market, some games deserve to be made in this one. The Caps’ moneyline price does not accurately reflect their chances of winning; So, there is value in taking the Caps to win: we classify it as a three star game.
Goals should be easy to find for the Capitals which should help this game go over the total and the Caps to cover the -1.5 puck. These bets are classified as two and one star respectively.