Nedeljkovic; Joseph; Hornqvist; Shot rate breakdown for Gezlaf and other outliers (November 10) – DobberHockey
The NHL continues to completely ruin the response to Brad Aldrich’s situation. It’s extremely disheartening that they really don’t care about the players and won’t do anything to care about anything other than the bottom line of the business. At least we have players like Carey Price starting to take their well-being into their own hands. Sincerely, Carey, and I hope you continue to get the help you need.
Be careful if you didn’t already know, the Islanders will play their only game of the week tomorrow. If you have some of their secondary / marginal players, you’d better stream for them on Friday as there are plenty of options for teams playing twice over the weekend.
Patric Hornqvist was on the power play in place of Sam Reinhart last night, and actually played quite a bit with both units. If this lasts for a while, Hornqvist’s fantastic stock should really climb. He’ll make a good goal in net on a top unit with a ton of skills to burn.
No Dougie Hamilton isn’t a problem for Ty Smith, who climbed to the top of the power unit and onto the scoresheet with three points. The Devils scored seven points against Spencer Knight who played in back-to-back games and had points from a dozen different players. The team started slowly, and struggled to catch up with all of their injuries. There are quite a few low buying options here despite all the pedigree of the first round.
Looks like Jon Cooper has settled into a somewhat defined roster for his attackers now that there has been some time for the squad to freeze since Nikita Kucherov’s injury. The big winner is Matthew Joseph, playing on a line with Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn. He’s probably the only one of this top-six group to be available in your league. He collected an assist last night and has up to five points in 12 games. He’s not setting the world on fire, but he has points in his last two games, and the five points have been in the last eight games (since Kucherov’s fall).
At the back, Erik Cernak was injured in the first period of last night’s game. When it comes to multi-category stats stuff, it doesn’t get much better. If you’re looking to fill in the same stats, inside replacement Cal Foote may be someone to watch out for if he starts seeing regular shifts with the team.
Andreas Athanasiou is an option under the radar that might be worth checking out in deeper leagues or as a short-term streamer. The winger has played three games so far this season after missing the first few weeks with injury. He looks healthy now with three points, five shots and a fair amount of power play time. He has mainly played in the second row with Phillip Danault and Alex Iafallo – all three are in full swing right now.
Stuart Skinner started his first game of the season and held on, allowing three goals on 38 shots, which compares favorably to his only start last year where he allowed five goals, also on 38 shots. He’s clearly number three in the organization, and with his competitor being an impending overpaid UFA and a 39-year-old male, there is some edge for Skinner in the near future.
On the other side of the ice, Vladislav Namestnikov seems really confident lately:
In front of the Red Wings net, Alex Nedeljkovic held on for his third victory of the season. He’s got a very respectable save percentage, just a shade above .910, but his GAA of three isn’t exactly what fantasy owners were hoping for from last year’s Calder runner-up. Playing behind the Detroit defense shouldn’t be too surprising though, and he’s at least posting better numbers than Tomas Greiss.
Good opportunity for Zach Sanford to play with Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk, and he took advantage of it with an early goal. This is only his second point of the season, but with Ottawa having a decent schedule ahead, it may be worth watching in the short term.
Looking at a few shot totals over the season, and unsurprisingly Alex Ovechkin is leading the way this year with 60 shots. What surprised me was that there was a Toronto duo completing the podium with William Nylander (51) and John Tavares (47). It’s too late to join any of these guys, but looking at shot totals is a good way to find guys who are ready to go out. Some names from the list to watch:
Kaprizov puts tons of shots into the net, but he’s scored on less than five percent of his shots so far. Last year that number was 17% and it was close to a goal every two games. This year he added 0.8 more shots per game, but the goal tally is not quite up to par. The dam is going to erupt very soon, and maybe this is one player who could really rock your fantasy fortune the rest of the way.
Getzlaf is currently racking up 2.8 shots per game, which is his highest score since his sophomore year. That being said, there are some very weird numbers behind his shot totals. The higher numbers are the result of shooting a lot more with the man advantage (where he sees over a minute more ice time compared to last season). Getzlaf is posting those numbers despite only starting a third of his strength changes in the attacking zone. Unfortunately, his numbers are supplemented by a large percentage (half) of his shots taken over 30 feet from the net. I haven’t watched a lot of Ducks games, but it all portrays a lot of breakouts seeing Getzlaf with the puck just inside the opposition blue line and pulling it to the net. For fantasy, that means his shot totals are very low in calories, and his 2.7% shot percentage shouldn’t be all that surprising. I’m suspicious of Getzlaf both because his non-shooting totals are all he can keep high enough to be worth possessed in 12 tag leagues, but also because his puck thrown from the sidelines is not something that is extremely durable either. It’s sold a lot in my eyes at this point despite the low percentage of shots (which you might be able to use as a reason for a teammate to buy it).
Among players with nine or more games this season, Tolvanen ranks first in shots / 60 and has 36 in his 12 games. The problem is twofold: 1) he doesn’t score, and 2) he plays 12 minutes per game. Now, which of these is the chicken and which of these is the egg is largely irrelevant until one or both of these are fixed. His three shots per game are excellent, but if he doesn’t have the help of his teammates he won’t have many high-quality chances and he will continue to shoot at a lower percentage (currently 2.8% ). At least when he’s not producing, the 22-year-old provides a solid mix of peripherals, but at some point a little more attacking is expected. The numbers should eventually increase, but without the extra ice time and regular teammates it might take a little more patience than your average player with just one goal on 36 shots.
Having only played two games this season, we have to keep in mind that this is a very small sample. However, Pacioretty has a history of high shot volumes, so his 13 shots in two games before he got injured is something he’s already done, but won’t follow for an entire season. What it does show, however, is that it won’t be slowing down anytime soon. On top of that, he is expected to play the final months of the season on one of the best lines in the league, alongside Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. With fantasy owners holding him on the IR and maybe just trying not to sink until he returns, he may be ripe for picking if you can offer them someone in return who will give them some extra production. short term.
It might be worth keeping an eye out for the “Harvard Gang” of Sean Farrell, Matthew Coronato and Henry Thrun. They display astronomical numbers at the start of their season.
Only Coronato can forgo his NCAA eligibility to move up to the pros next year, but the other two are certainly worth watching in the Deeper Dynasties as well. Thrun is a defenseman who was pushed back into the roster by Cam York and others with the USNTDP in his draft year. He’s a very complete defenseman, and just to keep your expectations under control, he doesn’t project himself as a top producer or a go-to NHL-level PP1.