Lightning Round: bettors like the Lightning
There are a lot of jobs you can be good at and keep. You know, like a meteorologist. A job where doing things right only part of the time will get you fired faster than a one-timer from Stamkos is the odds taker. For me, it’s fascinating how the men and women who set the lines for spot games are where they need to be to bring money into the game. sport bets. Remember their job isn’t too fair, it’s to set a number that will make people bet equally on both sides. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the opening lines of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 2021-22 season in the NHL.
First of all, the total number of points the Lightning will accumulate over the season is set at 108.5 according to our friends at www.betonline.ag (which we will be using for all of these bets). That’s a pretty healthy number. In fact, it is the second tallest in the league behind only the Colorado Avalanche‘s 110.5. In case you were wondering, the lowest total is 68.5 for the Arizona Coyotes. Phew.
For the Lightning to reach 109 points (believe it or not, the NHL hasn’t figured out how to award a 1??2 point again, but I bet they’re working on it) and hit the bet they would need to pick up 66.4% of the maximum points available throughout the season (82 games x 2 points for a win). Seems like a lot at first glance, but last season when they posted roughly the last week or so, they still managed to get 67% back. Nine teams in the league hit that number or better, with Colorado beating the league by 73.2 percent.
In 2019-2020 they collected 65.7% of the points available to them and in 2018-19 they collected an incredible 78.1%. It’s a really great regular season, isn’t it? In order for the Lightning to get to where it needs to be, it will need to set up some nice stitch sequences. Win streaks are always nice, but picking up Bettman’s point in overtime or shootout also helps reduce that number.
Is this team, as it is currently built, good enough to reach that mark? In my opinion – yes. While depth will be tested, the important elements of the roster – top six forwards, top four defenders Andrei Vasilevskiy – remain. Even at 85% of the talent of the last two teams they’ve put on the ice in recent seasons, they’re still one of the best teams in the league and should be favored to win just about every night they take the ice.
Would I bet this number? Probably not. Personally, I am not a fan of betting throughout the season just because there is too much uncertainty in the sport. A major injury, a long losing streak, a COVID stoppage and they are behind the eight balls chasing that number. Plus, the payment isn’t really worth it. The odds are -115 or more on the number (if you’re unfamiliar with the game imagine you have to bet $ 115 to win $ 100). If I want to go long, I want to have better odds than pairs.
If I were to bet all season on the Lightning I would go for something like them winning the Atlantic Division at +150 (bet $ 100 and win $ 150) or the Stanley cup to +625. At least I would be looking for a good return for the money tied to a long term bet. I don’t think winning the Cup with these odds is a bad bet, that number probably won’t change much unless you have a major injury. Not so big a fan of the Division’s winning bet. This team is not focused on winning the Atlantic Division. They just want to be healthy before the playoffs, if it costs them a division banner, so be it. They can win on the road or at home, they don’t care. Let Florida win (+375) then beat the Cats in the playoffs (again).
As for individual rewards? Nikita Kucherov is currently at +1100 to win the Hart Trophy with only Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews posting lower odds. Could Kuch make his way through the regular season now that he’s healthy again? You damn right, he might.
Vasilevskiy is the favorite to win the Vézina at +400 (he must have used Bovada’s odds on this one). Again, this is not a bet that I am a big fan of at the moment. With one of hockey’s best defensive lines ripped off him along with a few question marks outside of the top four on defense, his numbers could be down a bit in the regular season. Again, I don’t see that number moving too early in the regular season, so you can probably catch him at a similar number in December or January if he has a fire suppression season.
In general, I’m not a big fan of betting on or against the Lightning. Why add more stress to watching games throughout the season? Also, I live in a state that is staunchly against gambling in all its forms, which makes it a bit more difficult.
Make sure that if you make a bet or two, stay within your limits. Gambling can be addictive, so if you think you have a problem, or know someone who might have it, there is a problem. Resources it can help.
Lightning / Hockey News
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