Fantasy Hockey

Impacts of the All-Star Break – Part 2 – DobberHockey

Last week we started looking at what I called the impacts of the All-Star Break. It was really less of an impact, but more of a look at trends in the first half compared to the second half of the season. The biggest takeaways are that over the last couple of seasons Leon Draisaitl has been a great performer in the second half and the score usually seems to be a bit down in the second half compared to the first.

This Week on Frozen Tool Forensics: Impacts of the All-Star Break Part 2

The term “half” is a bit of a misnomer. Usually All-Star is around 50 games, so we’re really talking about slightly different sample sizes, not just a first half, second half.

As a reminder, to get this data, I went to Big Board reports pulled for specific time periods. I was watching two seasons, roughly split in half, so I used the Custom Date Range option to set the season start to break, then break to season end. The seasons in question are the 19-20 season and the 18-19 season because they were less impacted by COVID than the 20-21 season.

Last week, we stopped by identifying a list of first-half high performers who had a reasonably slim chance of continuing their high pace into the second half of the season. This week, we’re going to focus on the players who have seen the biggest changes in their divisions and the players who have seen the same changes in both seasons.

First, let’s look at the players who saw the biggest increase in points per game over those two seasons. As a reminder, this table includes both the number of points per match (PTS/GP) and goals per match (G/GP) before and after the All Star Game. It also has summary columns to show the difference. The table below is sorted by points-per-game difference for the two seasons.

Before ASG ASG post
Last name Pos generalist STP/GP G/GP generalist STP/GP G/GP ∆PTS/G ∆G/G
2019-20 Kevin FIALA L 45 0.62 0.20 19 1.37 0.74 0.75 0.54
2019-20 MIKAEL BACKLUND VS 50 0.44 0.12 20 1.15 0.50 0.71 0.38
2018-19 VLADIMIR TARASENKO R 48 0.67 0.35 28 1.29 0.57 0.62 0.22
2018-19 AUSTIN WATSON R 34 0.38 0.21 3 1 0.00 0.62 -0.21
2019-20 ANDREW MANGIAPANE L 48 0.31 0.17 20 0.85 0.45 0.54 0.28
2018-19 CARPET ZUCCARELLO R 35 0.69 0.23 13 1.23 0.31 0.54 0.08
2019-20 MIKA ZIBANEJAD VS 35 1.11 0.51 22 1.64 1.05 0.53 0.53
2018-19 PAVEL ZACHA L 43 0.26 0.16 18 0.78 0.33 0.52 0.17
2019-20 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS VS 43 0.77 0.30 22 1.27 0.41 0.5 0.11
2019-20 SEBASTIAN AHO VS 50 0.84 0.48 18 1.33 0.78 0.49 0.30

Those are single-season increases, but there are 16 players who increased their points per game in both seasons. The 10 most relevant fantasy players are listed below. Each player has their two seasons listed to show points by number of games, and a new column that shows the average point increase per game.

Before ASG ASG post
Last name Pos generalist STP/GP G/P generalist STP/GP ∆PTS/G Average increase
2018-19 PAVEL ZACHA L 43 0.26 0.16 18 0.78 0.52 0.39
2019-20 PAVEL ZACHA L 44 0.41 0.07 21 0.67 0.26
2019-20 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH L 48 0.54 0.17 20 1 0.46 0.355
2018-19 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH L 32 0.47 0.28 32 0.72 0.25
2019-20 JESPER BRATT R 40 0.4 0.20 20 0.8 0.4 0.285
2018-19 JESPER BRATT R 34 0.59 0.12 17 0.76 0.17
2019-20 COLTON PARAYKO D 42 0.31 0.05 22 0.68 0.37 0.29
2018-19 COLTON PARAYKO D 49 0.27 0.16 31 0.48 0.21
2019-20 DUNCAN-KEITH D 42 0.33 0.02 19 0.68 0.35 0.275
2018-19 DUNCAN-KEITH D 51 0.41 0.02 31 0.61 0.2
2018-19 ANTOINE MANTHA L 36 0.56 0.33 31 0.9 0.34 0.255
2019-20 ANTOINE MANTHA L 29 0.83 0.41 14 1 0.17
2018-19 RASMUS ANDERSSON D 48 0.15 0.02 31 0.39 0.24 0.215
2019-20 RASMUS ANDERSSON D 50 0.26 0.06 20 0.45 0.19
2018-19 JACOB LARSSON D 38 0.05 0.00 11 0.27 0.22 0.215
2019-20 JACOB LARSSON D 38 0.11 0.03 22 0.32 0.21
2018-19 ADRIEN KEMPE R 49 0.27 0.10 32 0.47 0.2 0.195
2019-20 ADRIEN KEMPE R 49 0.41 0.20 20 0.6 0.19
2018-19 WILLIAM KARLSSON VS 52 0.62 0.31 30 0.8 0.18 0.175
2019-20 WILLIAM KARLSSON VS 49 0.69 0.20 14 0.86 0.17

A few notes here:

Several of these players are already playing bigger roles this season, Jesper Bratt, Adrian Kempe and Pavel Buchnevich, so it might be a bit more difficult for them to improve again.

New Jersey is well represented with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt.

Our highest average earners are Pavel Zacha, Buchnevich and Bratt. Bratt is already on 80-point pace (with a previous high of 53) so wonders once again how much his second half can really improve. Buchnevich reached a career-high 78 points on a new team (up from a previous high of 73). While that seems largely sustainable, it’s once again hard to see him pushing his pace even higher in the second half. Zacha’s point pacing has actually dropped a lot from his 20-21 season. Unfortunately, nothing looks incredibly off in his numbers, but he could be the best bet of the three for the hat-trick.

And now let’s move on to the players who suffered the biggest losses.

Before ASG ASG post
Last name Pos generalist STP/GP G/P generalist STP/GP G/P ∆PTS/G ∆G/G
2018-19 MIKKO RANTANEN VS 50 1.48 0.46 24 0.54 0.33 -0.94 -0.13
2019-20 JONATHAN DROUIN L 19 0.79 0.37 8 0 0.00 -0.79 -0.37
2018-19 DUSTIN BYFUGLIAN D 32 0.91 0.13 ten 0.2 0.00 -0.71 -0.13
2019-20 JONATHAN HUBERDEAU L 49 1.33 0.37 20 0.65 0.25 -0.68 -0.12
2019-20 CAME ATKINSON R 39 0.67 0.31 5 0 0.00 -0.67 -0.31
2019-20 Alexander Barkov VS 49 1.1 0.33 17 0.47 0.24 -0.63 -0.09
2019-20 BROCK BOESER R 49 0.88 0.33 8 0.25 0.00 -0.63 -0.33
2018-19 JOHNNY GAUDREAU L 51 1.43 0.57 31 0.84 0.23 -0.59 -0.34
2018-19 ERIK KARLSSON D 47 0.91 0.06 6 0.33 0.00 -0.58 -0.06

Again, these are one-time losses over the past two seasons, and a number of them are due to small sample sizes. These are interesting, but what we really want to know is if there are any players who consistently do this. Overall, 36 players lost ground in the second half of both seasons, the following table shows the 12 most possessed players.

Before ASG ASG post
Last name Pos generalist STP/GP generalist STP/GP ∆PTS/G Average loss
2019-20 BLAKE COLEMAN R 48 0.56 18 0.28 -0.28 -0.27
2018-19 BLAKE COLEMAN R 48 0.56 30 0.3 -0.26
2018-19 ELIAS PETTERSON L 40 1.13 31 0.68 -0.45 -0.35
2019-20 ELIAS PETTERSON L 49 1.04 19 0.79 -0.25
2019-20 JACK EICHEL VS 48 1.29 20 0.8 -0.49 -0.355
2018-19 JACK EICHEL VS 45 1.16 32 0.94 -0.22
2018-19 JEFF SKINNER L 48 0.92 34 0.56 -0.36 -0.325
2019-20 JEFF SKINNER L 39 0.49 20 0.2 -0.29
2019-20 JOHN CARLSON D 49 1.22 20 0.75 -0.47 -0.345
2018-19 JOHN CARLSON D 49 0.96 31 0.74 -0.22
2018-19 MATT DUCHENE R 41 1.15 32 0.72 -0.43 -0.315
2019-20 MATT DUCHENE R 44 0.7 22 0.5 -0.2
2018-19 MITCHELL MARNER R 49 1.27 33 0.97 -0.3 -0.295
2019-20 MITCHELL MARNER R 38 1.24 21 0.95 -0.29
2018-19 NATHAN MACKINNON VS 50 1.42 32 0.88 -0.54 -0.48
2019-20 NATHAN MACKINNON VS 49 1.47 20 1.05 -0.42
2018-19 PHIL KESEL R 48 1.1 34 0.85 -0.25 -0.245
2019-20 PHIL KESEL R 51 0.61 19 0.37 -0.24
2018-19 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS VS 48 0.9 34 0.53 -0.37 -0.27
2019-20 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS VS 51 0.75 19 0.58 -0.17
2019-20 SAM REINHART R 49 0.84 20 0.45 -0.39 -0.345
2018-19 SAM REINHART R 48 0.92 34 0.62 -0.3
2019-20 VIKTOR ARVIDSSON R 35 0.57 22 0.36 -0.21 -0.205
2018-19 VIKTOR ARVIDSSON R 28 0.93 30 0.73 -0.2

There are a few big names on this list who performed better in the first half. Mitch Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel and John Carlson lead the way. Eichel is clearly going to be the exception this season as he hasn’t played. In fgeneral. these players are so talented that there is really nothing you can do about it. It’s not like managers have to sell these players because they have a history of slightly underperforming in the second half.

Elias Pettersson makes this list although it seems at least fairly likely that he won’t be in it for a third season. His 46-point pace in the first half (plus Vancouver’s dramatically poor start) seem more like outliers given his career numbers. That being said, nothing about Pettersson’s screaming first half coming up, so I’m not saying exactly that, but getting his 46-point pace worse should be a challenge for someone of his talent.

Players like Viktor Arvidsson, Sam Reinhart, Matt Duchene, Jeff Skinner and Pierre-Luc Dubois are all off to good starts (compared to their recent histories). For the most part, these are all players who have a new lease of life, whether it’s a new team or a new deployment. This change gives some optimism about their ability to keep pace in the first half, but they are certainly the kind of historically borderline players worth watching.

It’s all for this week

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