Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet: DraftKings’ Top NHL DFS Picks Feb. 21
Monday includes a two-game NHL slate, which begins at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings. In this article you will find DFS tips for DraftKings queues, plus a few DraftKings Sportsbook bets to target.
Define your DraftKings fantasy hockey rosters here: $6,000 NHL Twine [$2K to 1st] (Late)
Auston Matthews over 0.5 assists -120
The Maple Leafs have a ridiculous 4.4 implied team total for this game, and we should expect them to hit the top given the recent runs of these two teams. Toronto ranks fourth in goals per game and is also fourth in expected goal rate (xGF%) on the year. Matthews has 18 points in his last 10 games, including 10 assists. We could be aiming for bigger odds in the multi-point play category, but he’s been more productive as a playmaker lately (at least one assist in seven of his last 10 games). The odds seem more than fair against such a weak opponent.
Mark Giordano over 0.5 points +130
The Kraken offense has shown a bit of grit lately, and they’ve certainly been buoyed by Giordano’s presence in the lineup. The veteran defender heads into this game averaging 22.5 minutes in his last 10 starts and he’s also had points in three of his last four games. The Canucks have a terrible penalty — you can also watch Giordano +295 to score a point on the power play — and his recent production levels make that +130 line a little too juicy to pass on.
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Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens
John Tavares ($7,300) – William Nylander ($6,700) – Alex Kerfoot ($3,200)
A late two-game slate means we should get a little creative with our roster-building techniques if we want to have a lower ownership chance on some of our plays. The Leafs have a huge implied team total at 4.4 goals, which of course means it’s very possible that one of their top two lines will score twice or more.
Much like the Leafs’ first line, their second line also features an elite center-wing duo who play together at even strength and on the power play. Tavares was not the fantastic stud Auston Matthews ($9,200) has recently, but that hasn’t stopped him from cashing in 10 real-life points in his last 10 games either. Tavares has hit the bonus shots on goal three times in his last 10 games, so the recipe for a fantastic big outing is certainly intact against a weaker side like Montreal – who are fourth in shots against per game.
If you use Tavares, you almost have to pair him with Nylander, who will also attract less attention than his top-tier counterpart in Mitchell Marner ($8,400) in the Daily Fantasy Hockey Contests on Monday. Like Tavares, Nylander is fully capable of becoming the top fantasy scorer on Monday and is coming off of posting 17 or more DKFPs in three of his last six starts. Using Kerfoot with these two also lowers salary levels, so we can potentially “max out” Toronto forwards and nab one of their best players. Kerfoot has seven points in his last 10 games and posted 12 or more DKFPs in four of his last 10 games. His upside at these levels is as good as any punt you’ll find on this little slate.
Superstar to target
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens ($9,200)
It’s okay to go overboard on Leafs Monday. As mentioned, we have a small list of two evening games, and the other game (Seattle at Vancouver) has a handful of interesting, but relatively affordable Daily Fantasy Objectives. Matthews settles in as a player, we only really fade for game theory reasons in large pitches, where he’s likely to be held by a large portion of the pitch. The problem with not using it, however, is that even on a lower scoring list, Matthews’ shot production could still make him a top-five striker (even if he isn’t). not listed on the game sheet).
Matthews has only been held scoreless once in his last 10 games and is averaging 5.3 blocked shots + shots on goal per game. The way to differentiate on Monday is probably to use as many Leafs as possible. Build around Matthews (who rebounded with 25 DKFP the last time he was held scoreless), and don’t be afraid to add Leafs from all areas on Monday, given the big gap and total of goals for this game.
Elias Petterson, Vancouver Canucks vs. Seattle Kraken ($4,400)
The Canucks haven’t been playing very well lately, but their offense has started to get more consistent production from their second line. Pettersson comes into this game with 11 points scored in his last 10 games. He’s posted 15 or more DKFPs in five of his last 10 games, showing the edge that once made him a player we’d often see play in the $6,000 range, or more, every night. While I like the Kraken for a potential upset, they’re no good on the penalty kill, where Pettersson has grabbed 13 of his 32 points this season. At less than $4.5,000, it’s the best value available ahead Monday by a wide margin.
Calle Järnkrok, Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks ($3,700)
The Canucks have allowed 19 goals against in their last four games and received suspect goaltenders (at best) from Thatcher Demko ($7,900) lately — who has allowed 33 goals on the last 42 shots he has faced. Seattle’s offense isn’t scary, but some of their best liners have produced well in the short term, with Jarnkrok leading that group. He’s scored in three of his last five games and introduces us to the Kraken’s best power-play unit, which is in excellent position against the league’s worst penalty kill. Jarnkrok is a solid value target below $4,000 on Monday.
Philip Grubauer, Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks ($7,600)
Kraken’s goaltenders have been terrible this season, both in real life and in day-to-day fantasy hockey. Although we have seen improved play recently from Grubauer, who is coming off one of his best games of the season – and also posted a shutout just four starts ago. The former Avalanche starter should gain some confidence after nearly ending hockey’s hottest offense in his last start, and he’s getting a Canucks team that’s been badly beaten in two of his last three home games.
Kraken are +150 outsiders on DraftKings Sportsbook, but Vancouver has suffered from terrible goaltending lately and looks ripe for a potential loss to Seattle on Monday. With the lineup expected to be popular on the top two net favorites, going for the slowly improving Grubauer seems like a very favorable strategy in the big GPPs.
Value on defense
Jeff Petry, Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs ($3,400)
The Canadiens won’t make the playoffs this year, but they’ve started playing a little more respectably lately. Montreal has scored at least three goals in each of its last three games and started Monday on a two-game winning streak. Part of that resurgence is due to the improving game of Petry, who endured a pretty terrible season by his standards. Petry comes into this game having had four points in her last three games and has picked up the blocked shot bonus in three of her last four.
It’s hard to say why the big push came from Petry, but it’s worth rolling for everyday fantasy hockey purposes. Petry’s power play time may have been reduced (for now), but he’s still playing well over 22 minutes per game and looks like he’s got good value – considering he’s posted 14 or more DKFPs at each of his last three games. Roll with him if you want to call on any of your defensive points on Monday.
Power play defenders
Mark Giordano, Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks ($5,400)
The Kraken haven’t been world champions this year, but they recently got a boost in special teams with the return of Giordano. He’s had three power-play assists in his last 10 starts and increased his overall output to the point where he’s averaged 4.6 blocked shots + shots on goal in his last 10 starts.
At $5.4,000, that price would be a bargain for any day, but with the Canucks as their opponent on a small daily two-game President’s Day fantasy hockey slate, Giordano seems like the perfect fit for anchor your blue line. Vancouver continues to feature some of the worst special teams in hockey and is the only team in the league with a penalty kill that operates at less than 70 percent efficiency. Giordano has an excellent chance of scoring a point or more on Monday and has the best ground combo at his position.
Define your DraftKings fantasy hockey rosters here: $6,000 NHL Twine [$2K to 1st] (Late)
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