DFS NHL Breakdown (Sunday, November 21): Look for the Bruins to put out the flames
The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using tools and metrics from FantasyLabs to highlight notable players.
On Sunday, a five-game main roster kicks off at 6 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after the publication of this article. Check out the player models directly for any updates.
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Patrice Bergeron ($ 8,000 DraftKings, $ 8,000 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
After taking five straight days off, the Boston Bruins play back-to-back nights. They have a date with the Calgary Flames after eliminating the Philadelphia Flyers last night.
The Bruins have attempted 11 or more high-risk chances in three straight games, and Patrice Bergeron continues to be deployed prominently in all forces. The veteran center has the team’s third best expected goals score, generating 147 goals and 46 high danger chances across all forces. The Bruins start Bergeron in the attacking zone 61.5 percent of the time, which is ideal against a Flames team that has the third-worst goals-against-score expected on the road this season.
According to FantasyLabs projections, Bergeron is one of the top rated centers available tonight and is our best player in the middle.
Bo Horvat ($ 5,200 DraftKings, $ 5,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Vancouver Canucks are hoping to take a step forward after winning their first game in nearly two weeks. Tonight’s circumstances favor the Canucks once again as they host the Chicago Blackhawks for the second night in a row.
The Nucks came out of the schneid last time around, knocking out the Winnipeg Jets. Bo Horvat hasn’t scored in six straight games, but he continues to be an analysis darling for the Canucks. Horvat has an expected goal rating of 55.9%, the Canucks’ fourth-best, and is individually responsible for 57 goals and 28 high-risk chances this season. Horvat didn’t live up to his metrics, ranking below expected production thanks to his below-par shooting percentage.
Horvat has a reduced salary, but we should expect a good outing against the Hawks tonight. It is a game of value in the center.
David Pastrnak ($ ââ8,700 DraftKings, $ 8,600 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
Bergeron has been good this season, but David Pastrnak has been better. Pastrnak ranks above Bergeron in a few notable categories and is our best wing game.
Pastrnak has a better goal score than Bergeron, ranking second on the team, and is way ahead of production metrics. The 25-year-old leads the team in high risk percentage and has been on the ice for more scoring chances and high risk chances than any other Bruins forward. This leads to an increase in production, as Pastrnak has nine points in his last five games.
The Bruins’ top line is a dynamic point-scoring unit, and they’ll have plenty of chances tonight against the Flames.
Clayton Keller ($ 3,700 DraftKings, $ 4,100 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
It’s not very often that an Arizona Coyote fixes our DFS outage, but Clayton Keller is the exception on Sunday’s slate.
The Coyotes winger is one of two forwards with an expected goal percentage of over 50.0%. Keller’s production metrics are over 50.0% across the board, and he’s fortunate enough to produce on the top line and power unit of the Yotes. Arizona start Keller in the attacking zone 66.1 percent of the time, but they have a reduced shooting percentage with Keller on the ice.
Keller is a valuable contributor and he should improve on his recent two-game streak with at least one point. Keller has one of the more affordable salaries on the list and should easily exceed his implied value.
Adam Fox ($ 7,500 DraftKings, $ 6,900 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabers
There is an important distinction to be made when it comes to Adam Fox on tonight’s DFS slates. FanDuel has the New York Rangers against the Buffalo Sabers on the main slate, while DraftKings has this game on the early slate. Nonetheless, Fox’s value cannot be overlooked.
Fox has been deemed unnecessary in his last two games, but remains one of the Rangers’ best players analytically. The reigning Norris Trophy winner has been on the ice for more scoring chances and high danger than any other player. 12 of Fox’s 16 points tied, with the d-man recording one shorthanded count and three power-play assists. All in all, he ranks second in league scoring among defensemen and should no longer see his unnecessary streak continue.
The Rangers host the Dull Sabers on Sunday night, putting Fox in a good position for an outstanding performance.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($ 4,100 DraftKings, $ 4,300 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Oliver Ekman-Larsson came out of his long scoreless drought last time around, scoring his first goal since the season opener. OEL should see its production increase, as it remains below expected values.
Ekman-Larsson has the second-best expected five-on-five goal percentage against the Canucks. He is one of only three Canucks players to have Corsi ratings, shots, points and a high danger percentage all over 50.0%. What’s most impressive is that Ekman-Larsson accomplished this by getting just 43.2% of his starts in the attacking zone.
The Canucks are efficient with OEL on the ice, and we expect his name to appear on the scoresheet more frequently.
Be sure to check the starting goalies page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Jeremy Swayman ($ 8,100 DraftKings, $ 8,300 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
We’re highlighting Jeremy Swayman as the best option in goal as the Bruins welcome the road-weary Flames.
The Flames play their seventh straight road game tonight, the second night in a row. It’s been a successful trip for the Flames so far which is contraindicated in their metrics. Calgary has been outscored in four of this roadie’s six games and has dropped production metrics on the road. This allows Swayman to improve on his four-game winning streak, in which he stops 93.0% of shots.
The Bruins can shelter Swayman at home, and he’s set for another great performance against the Flames.
Philipp Grubauer ($ 7,600 DraftKings, $ 7,500 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
The Seattle Kraken is not off to a good start. The most recent NHL franchise has just four wins in 17 games, but their stats suggest more wins are on the horizon. It starts with an improved game by Philipp Grubauer between the pipes.
Grubauer falls short of career standards to start the season. The German goalkeeper is below par in terms of even strength, scoring chances and high-danger save percentages, which has earned him the worst save percentage of his career. Grubauer is well placed Sunday night as the Kraken host the Washington Capitals for the second night in a row. The Caps have outperformed the production metrics of their recent sample and could come out flat against Seattle.
Grubauer has one of the most affordable salaries on the DFS roster and is expected to surpass median projections against a tired Caps team.
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
It’s a busy night in the NHL, leaving punters with a number of stacks to go with tonight’s slate. We highlighted the Bruins throughout our breakdown and chose to go with them as a notable stack for tonight’s slate.
Pastrnak and Bergeron are a logical combination to include from the start. Both players rank in the league’s elite with their advanced metrics and have recently increased their points. They settled on the Bruins’ top line and their first unit on the power play, which will give them plenty of scoring opportunities against a Flames team due to a regression. Charlie McAvoy is the Bruins’ defenseman. McAvoy has 12 points in 14 games this season and is consistently among the Bruins’ top producers. The last line of defense is Swayman and for the reasons mentioned above is the best option to include in the net.
The betting market reflects our confidence in the Bruins as they enter tonight’s game with -175 favorites against Calgary.